Best Football Betting Strategies

Are you tired of chasing the elusive win by throwing together stupidly sized football accumulators? You are not alone. A sure fire way of losing your hard-earned funds all the time as a bettor is to lack any online football betting strategy. One primary thing that separates professional and successful bettors apart from unsuccessful ones is the betting strategies employed.

Successful bettors understand that one-size doesn’t fit all games and sports, and can find ways to tailor their approach to the upcoming game. But above all, successful punters have their own personal conviction in their strategies, and don’t make a move with every suggestion that comes their way. A betting strategy –also known as a betting system – is more of a structured approach to betting, in an attempt aimed at producing some profit.

To be successful, the betting system must alter the house edge into a player’s advantage. Many bettors who’ve used betting systems have reported success. If though they don’t win all the time, however, they win most of the time. Before diving into the different football betting systems and strategies, let’s examine how football strategies tend to be different to normal betting.

Yan Zhylinski Updated: 22 September 2021

How are football strategies different to normal betting?

Players looking to convert their knowledge in football into some income via a bookie will more than often use a mix of instincts and research as the basis for decision making on wagers. Yet, even when fully equipped with a profound knowledge of football, bettors can still be caught without any adequate football betting system or strategy.

Regular sports betting enthusiasts tend to follow a trading strategy that follows some consistent set of rules. If you happen to be in this group, then following this approach won’t mostly tee you up for a one off payday. With this approach, you need to be winning on a more consistent basis, over an extended period. That’s the logic at least.

Maybe you are reading this and thinking ‘I actually followed the same set of rules’. Chances are that you actually did, and maybe you had a strategy or a system to follow. Perhaps maybe it was not a good one as such. But there’s no need to worry. Here, you’ll find few of the best and arguably, the most trusted football betting strategies that you need to cast your eyes over, and the ones that you may want to steer away from, especially if you are a beginner.

Matched betting

Matched betting is one of those betting strategies that guarantees bettors some winnings. Are you interested? Of course you are. But first, what is matched betting? Matched betting (also known as lay bet matching, back bet matching or double betting) is a wagering technique used by bettors to profit from the free bets and other incentives that bookmakers offer. It’s generally considered risk-free and based on the application of mathematical equation as opposed to chance.

To put it in other words, matched betting is a way of turning free bets from online bookies into real cash. You do this by covering the entire potential outcomes of a footballing event by placing multiple bets. By doing this, you can make a profit all the time since it no longer matters which team emerged victorious on the match. The following is an example to help you understand how matched betting work:

Today, Arsenal host Chelsea. Let’ assume that you have a free bet from bet365, and in this case, it’s to back the home side (Arsenal), with odds of 2.30. You can go ahead and lay the bet, with the hope that Arsenal will fail to win with 1XBET at 2.42.

£10 free bet * 2.30 = £23 - £10 since the stake isn’t returned = £13

Lay £5.42 * 2.42 = £13.12 (your liability is £7.70, the difference between £13.12 and £5.42, which happens to be the backers stake).

As you can see, if your ‘back’ bet goes to win, you make £13 profit from bet365 but lose £7.70 on 1XBET lay bet. In other words, you’ve made a profit of £5.30 profit.

Price boost exploitation

Almost every other bookie offers their customers enhanced odds on almost a daily basis. 99% of bettors take this bet hoping to realize some winnings at the increased prizes. The remaining 1% have a good idea on how to exploit these offers for some positive return. In case you don’t know, different bookmakers price events in different ways, something that can present opportunities of its own where bettors can cover the entire outcomes for a win.

Price boost bets are aren’t risk free as such with the possibility of accounts facing restrictions and, potentially, facing closure. At times, price boosts can offer the same possibilities but with no risk of account implications. The reason for this is that bookies want bettors to take their boosted odds. In this strategy, you need to place a ‘back’ bet on odds that have been boosted and immediately head elsewhere to cover other possible outcomes –mostly via betting exchanges using a lay bet-.

When it comes to price boost exploitation, you need to note that with the exception liquidity issues and odds moving, this strategy is more of a banker; the returns tend to be generally smaller.

Lay betting strategies

We’ve briefly touched on lay bets above, and essentially, it’s just another way of saying ‘that will not happen’ as opposed to the traditional approach of ‘this will happen’. Laying a bet presents opportunities though. Lay betting is a strategy that many bettors try to use today. We’ll use 2 examples to show you how effectively use a lay betting strategy to your advantage.

First, let’s assume that you are laying on correct scores. In case you don’t know, predicting the exact score line in a football match is one of the hardest things to do. With that ideal planted firmly planted in your mind, lay bets give you the room to say ‘it won’t be that score.’ Of course, you can find plenty of score possibilities in a given match, meaning that you can go ahead and have a number of lay bet at once. You’ll lose when one of the scores you did lay does wash in as the correct score.

The second example of a lay football trading strategy we examine focusses on specific in-play matches. First, you’ll be on the lookout for matches that involve a heavy favorite. The prospect of a bettor laying against a League 1 side playing, for example, Liverpool is far from exciting. Here, your odds would be somewhat atrocious. Should the underdog take the lead, the odds begin to improve. After all, it becomes more like a handicap market. What does this mean? You now have the option of laying against the underdog side with the notion that a significantly stronger side will come back.

Kelly Criterion

The Kelly Criterion is a trading strategy that was initially developed to work in the financial world. Its swift transition to betting on football seems to be working perfectly as far as football betting systems and strategies go. The Kelly Criterion is probably one of the best football betting strategies that can help bettors build a sustainable profit.

Heavily reliant on sound management of money, the Kelly Criterion is a system of betting that implements a calculated method aimed at determining the stake of a wager on an outcome that has higher than expected odds. The Kelly Criterion is a system that maximizes the value of the bet by going ahead to determine the percentage of the bankroll that a player needs to use.

There are plenty of variations of this formula, with some of them appearing only comprehensive to math wizards. But here, we’ve managed to put in simple-to-understand layman’s terms.

Stake = (Decimal Odds x % Chance Win) – 1) (Decimal Odds – 1) * 100.

Stake = Maximum stake

Decimal Odds = Odds offered by the bookie

% Chance Win = Probability of winning as determined by a bettor, expressed as a decimal point.

Assuming that you’ve calculated the probability as 55% (0.55) on an even-money (2.0) bet. Then it’s going to be:

Stake = ((2.0 x 0.55) – 1) / (2.0 - 1) x 100

Stake = ((1.10 -1) / 1) x 100

Stake = 10%

Do you still find the formula confusing? It’s quite simple than you may imagine. The stake, put in simple terms, is the difference between the probability of winning and losing, solely determined by a bettor. If you lack an edge, or have a negative edge, don’t place your bets.

Fibonacci Method

Football betting strategies also include the Fibonacci Method. Some people argue that the Fibonacci Method is a less glamorous form of soccer betting. However, there are others with an opposing view who argue that this method of betting on football can make you big profits. We managed to investigate the Fibonacci system to establish whether its returns are worth the risks.

The essence of the Fibonacci Method for soccer betting is simple: place a bet on a draw, and if you lose, go ahead and bet on another one. Make sure to repeat this process until you win. With the Fibonacci Method, there are only 2 vital – and additional – rules to follow. You need to wager on draws when the probability lies above 2.618, and increase your wagering stake in a manner that follows the Fibonacci sequence: 1,1,2,3,4,5,8,13 etc.

The primary idea behind the Fibonacci betting system based on a 1989 theory that the tie or a draw is highly difficult for bookies to predict, meaning that it can be exploited. The primary idea here is that as long as a player continually increases the stake, any win will overcome the previous losses. In the 2011/12 EPL season, for instance, there were 93 draws, meaning that 24.5% of all games ended in a draw. Interestingly, the odds for a draw were above 2.618 threshold.

The Martingale Method

The Martingale Method of betting continues to draw a majority of bettors’ attention, especially those who are intrigued by football. Some bettors decide to give it a try since it works in extremely straightforward manner, while other players are allured by the idea that this betting strategy is infallible. Regardless of the case, you need to take note that even if you go ahead and apply the Martingale Method, it doesn’t mean that your profits are a guarantee. The results may be the opposite of expectations. But what’s the Martingale Method anyway?

The Martingale Method entails a bettor doubling the stake immediately following any losing-even money bet, allowing the first win to recover a player’s entire previous losses. In theory, it sounds good. But in reality, that may not be the case as such. But why, you may ask. If there’s a run of bad luck, such may end up making any bettor bankrupt. Assume that you’ve lost 4 even-money bets in a row having invested £10 on your initial wager. It means that your second bet would be £20, third £40 and fourth £80. It’s the reason why you may want to think through whether this is a good system for you or not.

What strategies are suitable for beginners?

Are you are football fan and just about to immerse yourself in the world of football betting? What strategies are suitable for you as a beginner? As a beginner with the intention of making money from football betting, you may want to try certain strategies and avoid others, until you learn its ins and outs.

So, are you are a beginner? Why don’t you try the matched betting strategy? Here, you bet with minimal risk since you’ll be using bonuses and promotions that your bookmaker offers. You get to use promotions that offer cash rewards or free bets. Using the bonus gifts, you can go ahead and wager on the maximum number of possibilities and if you are lucky, you can make a profit.

Besides the matched betting strategy, you can also go ahead and use the Kelly Criterion, especially if you are a beginner. The reason is simple; with the Kelly Criterion, you are solely responsible on how much you stake. As a beginner, you may stake low at first, then proceed as everything becomes clear.

Best bets for experienced players

Are you an experienced player in football betting? If that’s the case, then you must now be aware of a strategy that works for you. After years of betting using the available strategies, now, you have an idea of what works and what doesn’t work. Does lay betting work for you, where you back an outcome on two separate sites? Probably the Fibonacci Method does increase your chances of winning. We always advise you to stick to the ones that work well for you. But we have something to say about the Martingale Method. According to our expert opinion, the Martingale betting system might not be the ideal approach for you. Theoretically, the Martingale betting system functions as it should, but taken in practice, it may have some harmful effects on your bankroll.

Risks of working on a strategy

While football betting strategies are perfect, they all have their individual misses too. Any of these strategies do have their own risks worth noting. A primary risk of working with a strategy is that you may end up losing funds. No strategy is 100% perfect. Some strategies may seem enticing, only for you to find yourself turning out to be a gambling addict while using them.