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Best NBA Betting Strategies

Author: Yan Zhylinski

The National Basketball League remains one of the most watched and followed competitions across the globe. Along with this, it’s anything but surprising to see plenty of gamblers going out of their way in a bid to win themselves some serious cash. But unlike other sports that attract some overwhelming wagering action, betting on basketball isn’t a demanding process as such. But to enjoy some profitable sessions when wagering on basketball, you need to be aware that betting without some sort of strategy is purely ill advised. You need to note that utilizing basketball betting systems and strategies will come in handy when wagering on the NBA. Such strategies will give you tightly defined set of rules that you need to stick to when wagering so that you achieve the goals that you have. In this article, we look at several best NBA betting strategies, the best strategy to use, and ideal strategies for beginners, to mention but a few. Before that, let’s look at the importance of bankroll management plan.

Best NBA Betting Strategies

Bankroll Management Plan

Most of us budget when it comes to some basic stuff such as food or shelter, but for whatever reason, we completely forget this concept when it comes to sports betting. This is the bottom line: if you intend at wagering consistently and win, then you need to have some basic sort of bankroll management.

It’s solely up to you on how you manage to monitor your wagering bankroll. If anything, we aren’t forcing some financial advice upon you. However, you need to note that NBA betting tends to be very intensive, with lots of action to enjoy each night. To stay away from hemorrhaging your hard-earned funds within a short time, you may want to have a solid plan for your overall bankroll.

Bankroll Management Plan

Regardless of how basic your betting method could be, having a means of keeping an eye on your entire bankroll is helpful. For instance, it will assist you from losing track with humongous wagers that might cripple you should they miss. Additionally, you’ll likely avoid the temptation that comes with chasing losses. An excellent plan is that one that helps you understand what works and which one doesn’t over some extended period.

The following are some of the best NBA betting systems that you need to be aware of as a bettor. You can use them when wagering on NBA matches. When you use these betting systems alongside an overall understanding of NBA, they can help even a fresh-faced newbie into NBA wagering all-star.

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The Martingale System

You will not always win every wager that you place, but you can still manage to get some winnings over the long term when using systems such as the Martingale System. The Martingale System requires players to double their bets on selected team’s game totals up until they win. It may sound slightly crazy, so to say.

Let’s say that the Chicago Bulls are averaging 108.0 points per game and have managed to score 110.0+ points in the previous 5 games that they’ve played. After you carefully study the upcoming match, you decide to wager $40 on the Bulls going over 110.0 points when they face off with the Los Angeles Lakers. If the Bulls make it, you win your bet and realize a small profit.

If they don’t make it, the Martingale System compels you to take a deep breath and double your bet to $80 that the Bulls will go over 110 points in their next game against the Suns. Should the Bulls score 110 points or more, you’ll have successfully covered your previous loss and realized some extra cash. Should they fail, the Martingale System then requires you to double your previous bet to $160 and continue making the same wager up until your wager gets over the line and your get lucky.

The D’Alembert System

The D’Alembert System is similar to the Martingale System, though it carries a lesser financial risk since it tends to be more conservative in nature. When using this strategy, a bettor needs to choose a bet amount and get to increase it by the same amount should he lose it, and subsequently decrease it by the same amount if it wins.

Let’s assume that you place a bet of $30. Using the $30 as the starting point, you wager the $30 on the result of an NBA match. If your wager doesn’t succeed, you bet $30 the following night on the result of another game. But if you lose again, you bet $60 on the following game. Should you win that game, you then go back to a $30 bet on the following match, and so forth.

The Bounce Back System

There are cases where teams who’ve had a poor run of form turn back the tide and bounce back in their next home game. Bet Labs managed to study 250 matches where teams playing at their home turf were coming off a poor offensive game. They established that much of their next games did go over the projected total points total, around 62% of the time.

When undertaking your NBA research, and intending to wager using this system, you need to find teams that made under 40% from the field in their previous match. You can now bet the totals points over on their upcoming home game. The D’Alembert System tends to be generally less lucrative, especially when compared to the Martingale System. However, it appeals to bettors with a small bankroll that tend to be more risk-averse.

The Blowout System

When teams manage to win by more than 15 points, you will assume that they now have the momentum to win their upcoming match by more than 10 points too. But, the opposite tends to be the case more often than not.

In their research, Sports Insights established that NBA home favorites of 10+ points who were coming off of 15+ point win did manage to beat the spread by only 42.5% of the time. In other words, teams that beat their opponents are unlikely to do the same in their next contest. There are several reasons to this, one of them probably due to player fatigue or inflated overconfidence.

You can make some cash by betting against the spread of a team that recently triumphed their previous opponent by more than 15 points.

The High Totals System

There are plenty of basketball betting strategies out there. However, no strategy is simple to learn and subsequently use than the High Totals System. According to its founder (Allen Moody), bookies often underestimate the points totals for NBA non-conference matches. Moody began by taking the over on all matches with an over/under of a total of 220 points. While it’s a simple strategy, it paid off since he was right 63.5% of the time for the entire meetings from 2004-05 to 2008-09.

Such kinds of matches were rarities a decade ago, though they are now becoming more common with teams pushing the pace and draining more three-pointers. Looking back at NBA’s 2004-05 season, teams participating in the league managed to score an average of 97.2 per match. The number jumped to 100.0 in the 2008-09 season and then to 105.6 in the 2016-17 season.

Bookmakers seem to have become well informed regarding this trend, though there’s still value that you can find by taking the over in matches that have high total-point projections.

The Back-to-Back System

The back-to-back system is another strategy that you can use when wagering on the NBA. It’s a well-known fact that many teams find it challenging to win the 2nd game back-to-back, though not all of them find it equally challenging.

A research by NumberFire undertaken in 2016 established some interesting facts worth noting. The firm looked at the effects of B2B’s (back-to-back) on teams that were below and above 5.00 in the league standings of NBA.

NumberFire established that teams over .500 lost 5% more than their average following their 2nd night of back-to-back. On the other hand, teams that were below .500 lost 11% more than their average on the 2nd night of a back-to-back. Based on the outcomes of the research, teams playing the 2nd of a back-to-back on the road were likely to lose by 18%.

These are some helpful insights that you need to factor in when you think of betting on NBA. Among other things, consider a team’s average age, their pace of play, and whether a team needs to adjust to multiple time zones within the shortest time possible. Each of these factors can heavily cause a huge drop off in a team’s performance from match to match.

The Three in Four System

In the recent years, the league seem to have gone to great lengths and lowered the number of back-to-back schedules that team’s face. However, it’s not strange for teams to take part in 3 games in 4 nights. Sports betting experts, namely those from TheSportsGeek.com established that teams that played B2B2B’s did manage to cover the spread or go over the total points margin 58.8% of the time.

The above can be understood by the fact that in a game of basketball, defense takes a lot of effort compared to offense, with the players playing with some less defensive intensity all while being tired. Regardless of the case, it’s a good thing for a bettor to take the “total points over” when the teams are playing on their third of a B2B2B. You can use this basketball betting strategy when wagering on the NBA.

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The Tunnel System

The Tunnel System of betting is on the basis that competing bookies offer different total points lines, all while providing the same betting odds. For example, assume that one bookie offers the total points line for a game featuring the Bulls vs. Spurs at 218.0 points, while the other one offers total points line at 215.0. In both cases, you can see that the Bulls are listed as -9 points favorites.

When you wager using the Tunnel System, you’d bet the over (215.0) at one bookie, and the under (218.0) at another bookie. Should the total final score between the Bulls and Spurs be 216.0 or 217.0, it means that you’ll have won both of your bets. But if it falls outside the “Tunnel,” your winnings are still a guarantee, but 1 out of your 2 bets, since you met the required number of points.

Managing to win 1 of the 2 bets will bring about a small net loss, as you’ll usually have to lay -110 odds in the two bets. If you want to cash in on the Tunnel System, you’ll need to win your 2 bets around 10% of the time. As a bettor betting on NBA, make sure to try this strategy at some point. It definitely has the potential of winning you a few extra bucks.

If you choose to use this betting strategy, you may have to undertake some piece of homework on your own. You need to note that there may be some small discrepancies between many bookies. Many bookies make it difficult to find total points lines that are more than 2 points apart. But if you happen to find one, don’t waste time. Jump on it immediately.

The Zig-Zag Betting System

The Zig-Zag system is another popular betting strategy used by players to wager in many sporting events. This strategy finds heavy use when wagering on playoff games which play a best of series as opposed to single elimination game.

The Zig-Zag system operates under the assumption that bookies and novice players overreact to recent outcomes of games and that playoff teams will tend to respond to their losses with some extra motivation.

The team that lost their previous match is the one that you get to wager for when betting. But you need to remember that on its own, the Zig-Zag system only manages to win 50.9% of the time. To increase your chances of winning, you need to add more filters. This system tends to work better in a situation where a team recovering from a loss is scheduled to play at home, and especially if their last loss took place on their home turf.

To better your winning chances, you need to add more filters and find home teams that lost their last match by more than 3 points and those who won at least 60% of their matches through the regular season.

Which betting strategy to choose

As you can see, there are plenty of betting systems and strategies that you can use when wagering on the NBA or basketball in general. But which betting strategy should you choose? It’s quite simple. You need to choose a strategy that you feel can win you some easy cash. Based on our analysis, we established the Martingale System and the D’Alembert to be some of the best betting strategies that you may want to try. With both the Martingale and the D’Alembert betting systems, you get to control how you bet. You can try lower-risk bets that don’t cost you a lot as you scale up the ladder. The D’Alembert System, for instance, is less financially risky, meaning that you cannot lose more when using this strategy. But overall, you need to choose a strategy that you understand better.

Which strategy to choose for a beginner

betting labs

As a beginner to the world of NBA betting, there’s nothing riskier than immersing yourself in this world minus any sort of NBA betting strategy with you. As you’ve seen from above, there are several betting systems and strategies that you can use. In fact, the ones we’ve mentioned are just a tip of the iceberg. There are several other betting systems and strategies that you can use when wagering on the NBA. As a beginner, though, you may want to begin with the D’Alembert System. But why, you may ask. With the D’Alembert System, you are in control of everything. You get to choose the bet amount that you want to use. Here, you are solely responsible on how you bet. If you remember, the D’Alembert System comes with a lot less financial risk, a perfect type of strategy for a beginner.

Stay Informed on Player Injury and Rest Updates

There’s nothing more worse than the feeling that comes after realizing the betting line you chose was didn’t sail through because the star player of that team was injured or rested. You will not only feel bad for losing, but also regret since you know you could have made an informed decision by just checking out the team’s injury updates.

Unfortunately, this kind of stuff is a common occurrence, and another black hole for your bankroll. To be on the safe side, ensure that you stay up to the minutes on personal news when wagering. Additionally, make sure that you are aware of other things such as minute restrictions or if the player playing is tired and won’t be as productive as such. Even though not an NBA betting strategy as such, staying informed on player injury and rest updates is crucial. In short, don’t wager blind.

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Published: 09/07/2021

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